Monthly Editorial Departments

The U.S. economy, at least as measured by spending and income, shows clear signs of having weathered financial hubris, terrorist attacks, recession and heightened uncertainty about war. Economic expansion is underway. Conditions have not returned to the strong boom of the late 1990s. However, through the first half of 2003, things look better today than in 2001. In short, the … [Read more...] about April 2004: Business Indicators

Productivity growth and continued strength in consumer spending, particularly for big-ticket items such as homes and cars, buoyed spending levels over the past couple of years. Still, the last half of 2003 proved far better than the first half of the year. The national GDP numbers grew robustly, up by more than 4.3 percent on an annual basis from the 3rd quarter of 2002 to the … [Read more...] about March 2004: Business Indicators

Nevada’s economy continues to expand. Job growth equaled 3.6 percent for November 2003 over the same month a year ago. Visitor volume grew at 3.1 percent and gaming revenue was up 1.5 percent. Most noteworthy, taxable-sales growth reached a one-month growth rate of 10.8 percent. Of course, a strong month does not yield a long-run cyclical uptrend, but the news is … [Read more...] about February 2004: Business Indicators

The third-quarter inflation-adjusted rate of growth in aggregate spending moved forward at a brisk rate of more than 2.0 percent above the second quarter (or, at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 8.2 percent), signaling an economy that is gaining steam. Personal consumption, equipment and software purchases, exports and residential-fixed investment were cited as … [Read more...] about January 2004: Business Indicators

The U.S. and Nevada economies continue to grow healthier. Nevada’s recent level of employment stands 2.1 percent above the year-ago level. Though momentum is underway, Nevada’s employment growth rate has slipped from the levels experienced in the late ’90s. Still, the Silver State’s job-creation performance remains one of the best among the states. In comparison, U.S. … [Read more...] about December 2003: Business Indicators

After the 2001 recession – a short-lived and mild one by comparison with historical downturns – the U.S. economy has not followed a usual recovery pattern of rapid growth in the months after hitting bottom. With strong productivity growth limiting the need for workers, it is not surprising that the number of jobs has remained below the peak reached in early 2001. With the … [Read more...] about November 2003: Business Indicators

Having bottomed out, the Nevada and U.S. economies are now expanding. Indeed, after some period of indecision, the arbitrators of the dating of U.S. business cycles declared that the recession ended in November 2002. The expansion that followed has, however, been modest by historical standards. The U.S. expansion in 2002 and 2003 has been so weak that concerns have … [Read more...] about October 2003: Business Indicators

The National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbitrator on dating the business cycle, has declared that the recession that began in March 2001 is over. The U.S. economy is now expanding. Nonetheless, the long wait to make this declaration reveals that the current expansion is weak. Overall, the economy declined from March 2001 to November 2001. After reaching the … [Read more...] about September 2003: Business Indicators

Economic activity following the Gulf War in 1991 moved forward without marked improvement in employment, giving rise to the term "jobless recovery". So far, employment growth in 2003 seems stuck, leading one to surmise that the next recovery, whether already afoot or to occur in the future, might also be a "jobless recovery". U.S. employment in May remained essentially … [Read more...] about August 2003: Business Indicators

The cloud of uncertainty that thwarted economic expansion during the early months of 2003 has not faded. Geopolitical events continue to unfold in a manner creating uncertainty. The Iraqi war is over, but peace and prosperity remain illusive in the fractious Middle East. Political and economic turmoil continue. These uncertainties have not pushed the economy into a further … [Read more...] about July 2003: Business Indicators

Real Gross Domestic Product, an inflation-adjusted measure of overall economic performance, posted a modest growth rate of 0.3 percent for the fourth quarter of 2002. This slowdown comes at the confluence of economically constrictive factors. Most important, however, the winds of war and the heightened uncertainties of geopolitical forces have kept consumers and investors wary … [Read more...] about June 2003: Business Indicators

The national recession, which began in March 2001, has not ended, at least according to the customary assessment procedures. Under these procedures, a recession comes to an end when the recovery generates sustained increases in aggregate output and employment. So far, a growing U.S. economy, as reflected by an increase in GDP (gross domestic product) of 0.4 percent during the … [Read more...] about May 2003: Business Indicators

Key economic indicators continue to reveal modest economic performance, both nationally and in Nevada. Most believe we had a recession in 2001, reached bottom, and began recovering during 2002. Recent mild expansion does, nonetheless, leave some questioning the economy’s future direction. Indeed, economic performance has been so soft that total employment has yet to return to … [Read more...] about April 2003: Business Indicators

Consumer confidence measures continue to trend downward, business expansion plans remain on hold and price/earnings ratios remain high – all signs of economic weakness. Still, consumer spending continues to trend upward, particularly housing. Low mortgage rates and past wealth accumulations have spurred the housing market. Without a robust housing market, the recession that … [Read more...] about March 2003: Business Indicators

Evaluation of recent information, especially in comparison with data for September 2001, is clouded by the Sept. 11 experience. As such, looking across a wider time span to gauge current conditions, we find the events since March 2001 – the date given for the end of the last phase of business expansion – are best described as a "shallow" recession. Indeed, the current recession … [Read more...] about January 2003: Business Indicators