Business Indicators

The US economy exploded with new growth in the fourth quarter of 2009 as GDP growth soared to a 5.7% annualized growth rate. In the 3rd quarter, real GDP advanced at an annual rate of 2.2%. GDP, a measure of the total value of all final production in the US, is composed of investment by firms and individuals, consumption by households, government spending, and exports less … [Read more...] about March 2010: Business Indicators

The US economy has shown continued, but cautious, signs of economic recovery.  The December 29, 2009, release of the New York-based Conference Board’s US Consumer Confidence Index showed consumer confidence rising for the second month straight in November.  The Expectations Index climbed to 75.6 from 70.3, reflecting more optimism about the future on the part of the American … [Read more...] about February 2010: Business Indicators

The US economy began to pick up in the third quarter.  Gross domestic product, the measure of all goods and services produced in the US, grew at a rate of 2.8 percent.  This came after four straight quarters of contraction in the US economy.  Although the National Bureau of Economic Research has yet to declare an end to the recession, most economists agree that the recession is … [Read more...] about January 2010: Business Indicators

The national recession continues, though some signs of recovery give heart that things are on the move. For one, the U.S. Index of Leading Indicators, a six-month-ahead forecast, has been on the upswing over the past five months, suggesting that spring 2010 may see the end of the national recession. On the other hand, the Southern Nevada Index of Leading Indicators, … [Read more...] about December 2009: Business Indicators

The recession continues.  Business contraction has sent unemployment rates to the highest levels in decades.  In Nevada the unemployment rate is at 13 percent, compared with a national rate of 9.8 percent.  Since job markets lag during economic recovery, more job losses are expected.  It would not be out of order to believe that the U.S. rate will reach 10.5 percent and the … [Read more...] about November 2009: Business Indicators

We have come to the one-year anniversary of the Lehman Brothers’ failure.  They held a long-standing Wall Street position of financial strength and most considered Lehman too big to fail. Not surprisingly, the failure sent a wave of shocks, including consumers cutting their spending, paying off outstanding credit, and raising their savings.  Job losses grew quickly.  … [Read more...] about October 2009: Business Indicators

Economic hardship continues, even as pundits seek to find every glimpse of improvement ahead—referred to as “green shoots.”  Nevada, Clark County, and Washoe County posted unemployment rates well above the national level, jumping significantly for June with the rates reaching 12.1, 12.3, and 11.8 percent, respectively.  Such numbers put the Silver State among the worst-hit … [Read more...] about September 2009: Business Indicators

The data continue to tell the story of an economic recession, or more stated differently—“No Toto, we are not in Kansas.”  In short, Nevada no longer enjoys the benefits of growth and its citizens finds themselves grappling with the economic hardships of the worst recession since the 1930s. Looking at year-ago percentage changes, one sees a clear pattern—negative signs for … [Read more...] about August 2009: Business Indicators

Yes, perhaps we may have the first signs of finding a bottom to the current recession.  March data, the last month for which we have a full reporting, offer a few pleasant signs.  Seasonal factors aside, we find several Silver State indicators moving up by healthy percentages relative to the previous month—enough to suggest that perhaps the positive factors are gaining … [Read more...] about July 2009: Business Indicators

We find little improvement in the most recent economic indicators—for example, the unemployment rate rose nationally and in the Silver State.  Unemployment rates in Nevada climbed rapidly over the past year and reached double-digit levels—10.5 percent, 10.4 percent, and 11.2 percent respectively for Nevada, Clark County (Las Vegas), and Washoe County (Reno) by April.  The rates … [Read more...] about June 2009: Business Indicators

The lyrics of Francis Paul Webster and the haunting melody of Maurice Jarre’s soundtrack from “Doctor Zhivago” say it best. It puts you in the right frame for seeing a way forward from the current economic travail.  Yes, we find ourselves in an economic winter, but we will see an economic recovery, perhaps earlier, but hopefully by spring 2010.  Hope will first appear in … [Read more...] about May 2009: Business Indicators

The Silver State’s conditions have deteriorated rapidly. Just a year ago the jobless rate was 5.9, 5.6, and 6.6 percent for Nevada, Las Vegas, and Reno, respectively. A year later the rates exceed 10 percent—meaning a bad recession for the Silver State and its major urban areas. National conditions do not offer much encouragement—consumers now spend less, believing that an … [Read more...] about April 2009: Business Indicators

The November and December indicators show an economy caught in a firestorm—an uncontrolled self-reinforcing decline in which job layoffs create further job losses. A sustaining economic firestorm shows in the preponderance of double-digit percentage declines from year-ago levels. The severity of the contraction shows in sharp cuts in consumer spending. The Nevada … [Read more...] about March 2009: Business Indicators

Economic conditions were mixed a year ago. There were very few signs in early 2008 that hinted at severe economic turbulence was on the horizon. Financial conditions weakened by spring, however. The Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury came to the rescue, believing that firms were caught in illiquid positions, that is, they had too much long-term investments and too little … [Read more...] about February 2009: Business Indicators

The numbers are bad. Last year at this time things looked pretty good, at least in Nevada. Even though the U.S. had started to experience difficulties in the credit markets and the housing bubble had already started deflating, things were holding up. We did, however, see storm clouds on the horizon. A year later, however, conditions have deteriorated markedly. Job levels are … [Read more...] about January 2009: Business Indicators