Business Indicators

The consequences of earlier actions are making themselves felt. The excesses of the past have seeded a series of recent bewildering events. At a time in which order, discernment, agreement, and guidance were called for, policy making in Washington took a series of awkward turns. Some were numbed to see cliff-diving devaluation biting into asset values, leaving a trail of … [Read more...] about December 2008: Business Indicators

More than two years after U.S. housing markets started rebalancing and a year after financial firms became bogged down in bad paper, markets concluded that the recovery failed to get traction. Financial firms were unable to correct their problems, resulting in credit markets failing to operate. In short, the Treasury and Fed failed to stem the tide. In the span of one week, … [Read more...] about November 2008: Business Indicators

Housing, credit, and energy, the three major economic problems confronting the U.S. and some states, have taken the steam out of the economy. The impact reminds one of a Caribbean hurricane season hitting the same area more than once and each time spawning tidal surges and killer tornados. Today, we grapple with the economic storms’ aftermath--depreciating housing values, a … [Read more...] about September 2008: Business Indicators

Housing, credit, and energy – three problems facing the Silver State and the nation – are exacting a toll. Following the high-tech stock bubble burst in 2000, funds became available for spending in the housing market. This resulted in rapid price increases untethered to economic fundamentals. We ended up with more housing units than households to occupy them, in short, a glut … [Read more...] about August 2008: Business Indicators

The U.S. unemployment rate for May jumped 0.5 percent, rising to 5.5 percent. This jump sent a signal that economic conditions remained weak and future conditions would not improve quickly. This prospect sent currency traders scrambling to realign portfolios with fewer dollars. The declining dollar sent crude-oil prices up by more than $11, a one-day increase greater than oil … [Read more...] about July 2008: Business Indicators

There are more negatives than positives for the current monthly indicators. Both Reno (Washoe County) and Las Vegas (Clark County) continue to experience an economic slowdown. We find negative values for most of the same month year-ago percentage changes. Current indicators show that 8 of 9 for the Reno metro area and 7 of 9 for the Las Vegas metro area have weakened. Moreover, … [Read more...] about June 2008: Business Indicators

We find no doubt that the U.S. and Nevada economies are in a slowdown and that economic performance should be sub-par for at least the first half of 2008. Some second-half improvement is expected with federal tax rebate checks giving households more money to spend. Economic weakness shows in the job numbers. U.S. job growth has turned negative since January. March’s U.S. … [Read more...] about May 2008: Business Indicators

There has been a wave of recession declarations coming on the heels of bad news in residential construction. The housing industry produced more than the market absorbed, creating an excess supply of housing units. As a result, U.S. new home starts are down 27.8 percent from the same month a year ago. Reno and Las Vegas have been caught up in the speculative housing behavior of … [Read more...] about April 2008: Business Indicators

The slowdown continues. U.S. GDP grew at a tepid rate of 0.6 percent for the fourth quarter of 2007. Job growth showed similar weakness, a decline of 17,000 jobs over the last month, leaving employment essentially flat. Indeed, it takes a substantially greater decline than last month’s job losses for a recession. End-of-year numbers may also be influenced by irregular events … [Read more...] about March 2008: Business Indicators

The indicators have revealed a mixed picture for both the Nevada and U.S. economies. Increasingly, however, the data point to increased chances for both a national and silver state recession. Nevada has been in an imbalance position ever since the housing markets in Las Vegas and Reno peaked. Nevada has seen marked decline in prices and sales. Recovery from an excess supply of … [Read more...] about February 2008: Business Indicators

The Nevada and U.S. economies enter 2008 facing the headwinds of the housing slowdown, uncertainties in credit markets, and a general malaise about the future. Though consumer and business confidence has dropped, the most recent indicators are mixed, but not depressing. On the contrary, employment levels are higher than the same month a year ago for the U.S., Nevada, Las Vegas, … [Read more...] about January 2008: Business Indicators

The U.S. and Nevada economies continue adjusting to housing problems. Nationally, housing starts are off 30.8 percent September 2007 from the same month a year earlier. Reno shows a similar sharp drop with permitting down 40.1 percent. Las Vegas, on the other hand, shows a jump in permitting. This is an unsustainable increase as the abundant supply of unoccupied units will take … [Read more...] about December 2007: Business Indicators

The midyear indicators remain generally positive.  To be sure, a number of indicators point to slowing rates of change.  And a few, in particular housing, generally show marked weakness in comparison with indicators in 2005 and early 2006. One indicator showed a big jump.  Las Vegas residential permitting jumped from 925 in July to 2,388 in August; a one-month increase in … [Read more...] about November 2007: Business Indicators

It could not last-and, it did not. The push toward increased home ownership, an admirable objective, came with a host of relaxed credit standards; generally referred to as subprime mortgages. Innovative, but relaxed credit standards, abundant funding augmented from expanding global sources; and a rush for quick returns triggered by some early highly profitable events set off a … [Read more...] about October 2007: Business Indicators

Housing’s rebalancing, as reflected in the sharp decline in permitting activity relative to year-ago levels, has created an economic drag, resulting in more modest change of late. For example, Nevada’s employment growth has slowed to 1.7 percent as measured by the June 2007 level relative to June 2006. Over the same period, Las Vegas (Clark County) posted a 2.1 percent gain and … [Read more...] about September 2007: Business Indicators