Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annualized rate of 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2025. This decline was primarily due to a surge in imports ahead of anticipated tariffs and a decrease in government spending, which was partially offset by increased investment and consumer spending. Seasonally adjusted U.S. nonfarm employment increased by 1.1 percent compared to a year ago, with 147,000 jobs added in June. Growth was supported by gains in health care and state government, while federal government employment continued to decline. The unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percent from last month.
Inflationary pressures remained moderate. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4 percent year-over-year in May, while the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 2.8 percent. Retail sales declined 0.9 percent month over month, led by a 9.3 percent drop in auto and truck sales, highlighting a slowdown in larger purchases. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 4.25 to 4.5 percent at their June meeting as officials awaited more data with looming tariff deal deadlines. Now the Fed needs to evaluate the potential effects of the “big, beautiful bill.”
Nevada showed weak economic performance. Statewide seasonally adjusted employment rose in May by 500 jobs, and went up 0.6 percent from the prior year, reaching 1.58 million jobs. The unemployment rate declined to 5.5 percent but remained the highest in the nation. Gaming revenue totaled $1.29 billion, down 2.2 percent from last May. Air passenger volume in May fell to 5.39 million, a 3.6 percent year-over-year decline. Taxable sales in March also plummeted by 5.6 percent year over year.
Clark County’s economy generally registered unfavorable signals, with employment inching up 0.1 percent in May and the unemployment rate edging down to 5.7 percent. Gaming revenue declined 2.5 percent to $1.12 billion, largely reflecting a 3.8 percent drop on the Las Vegas Strip and an 11.4 percent decline downtown. Both visitor volume and air passengers experienced year-over-year losses, down 6.0 and 3.9 percent, respectively. Residential permits also fell 3.4 percent from last year.
Washoe County posted stronger trends. Employment rose 0.1 percent in May and was up 1.4 percent from a year earlier. Gaming revenue reached $90.6 million, a 0.2 percent year-over-year increase. Air passenger volume rose 1.1 percent from last year, and visitor volume climbed 1.5 percent over the same period. Still, residential permits fell 57.7 percent.
UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research
The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the University of Nevada, Las Vegas or the Nevada System of Higher Education.
