The “advance” estimate of U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2021 grew at a better-than-expected pace, up by 6.9 percent at an annual rate. As a result, real GDP increased by 5.7 percent in 2021, the strongest growth since 1984. The largerthan-expected growth in the fourth quarter was mainly boosted by a replenishment of inventories. Exports also contributed positively to the real GDP growth. U.S. nonfarm employment experienced a stronger-than-expected gain, adding 467,000 jobs in January, despite record-high COVID cases. The largest job gain occurred in the leisure and hospitality sector, adding 151,000 jobs. Despite the strong job market, retail sales in December posted the biggest month-over-month decline of 1.9 percent since February 2021. The most recent data indicates the U.S. economy will continue expansion. The Federal Reserve will likely increase the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 0.25-0.50 percent in March, followed by possibly two more rate increases this year.
Nevada’s economic activity posted positive signals based on the most recent data. Seasonally adjusted statewide employment added 3,700 jobs in December. The largest gains occurred in the leisure and hospitality and trade, transportation, and utilities sectors, adding 2,400 and 1,600 jobs, respectively. December gaming revenue dropped by 13.0 percent month-over-month. November taxable sales also declined slightly by 0.8 percent from last month but rose strongly by 27.3 percent year-over-year.
Clark County displayed somewhat mixed signs in its local economic activity. Seasonally adjusted employment in December gained 6,100 jobs and remained 6.6 percent lower than its previous peak in February 2020. Total southern Nevada airport passengers and visitor volume for December declined by 3.0 and 3.9 percent, respectively, from last month. December gaming revenue plummeted by 13.9 percent month-over-month but climbed by 8.8 percent from two years ago. November taxable sales also rose strongly by 20.6 percent from two years ago. December residential permits contracted by 22.1 percent from last year.
Washoe County exhibited generally favorable signals in its local economic activity. The Reno-Sparks seasonally adjusted employment added 1,100 jobs in December. November taxable sales climbed by 27.4 percent from two years ago. December air passengers increased by 2.2 percent month-over-month, but visitor volume slightly decreased by 0.6 percent over the same period. December gaming revenue also increased substantially by 6.5 percent from two years ago. December residential permits declined by 6.4 percent from last year.
UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research
The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the University of Nevada, Las Vegas or the Nevada System of Higher Education.
