The second estimate of U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) for 2022 Q4 grew by an annualized 2.7 percent, falling by 0.2 percent from the advance estimate released at the end of January. The 2.7-percent real GDP increase reflected restocked inventories and robust consumer spending on services, which were partly offset by decreases in business investment and consumer spending on goods. Seasonally adjusted U.S. nonfarm employment experienced a robust gain of 311,000 jobs in February, largely driven by 105,000 jobs in leisure and hospitality which has been the leading net job creator for 6 months straight. The unemployment rate rose to 3.6 percent due to the highest labor participation levels since the pandemic, but 1.9 job openings still existed per unemployed person in January. Retail sales experienced a surprising monthly gain of 3.0 percent in January and 6.4 percent from last year, which keeps pace with CPI inflation of 6.3 percent year-over-year. As we write this, recent robust economic data and the failure of Silicon Valley Bank send mixed signals to the Fed about their policy decision in the March meeting.
Nevada posted mixed economic signals. Seasonally adjusted statewide employment gained 4,600 jobs in January. The unemployment rate remained the same at 5.5 percent as the civilian labor force finally exceed pre-pandemic levels (January 2023 to January 2020) by 12,375 workers. January gaming revenue and total air passengers jumped substantially by 18.0 and 11.7 percent, respectively, year-over-year, as the tourism sector struggled in January 2022 due to the Omicron variant. Taxable sales in December rose by 6.6 percent from last year to its highest monthly level of $8.2 billion.
Clark County displayed generally positive economic signals. The Las Vegas-Paradise seasonally adjusted employment in January added 4,000 jobs. The unemployment rate, however, remained unchanged at 5.6 percent. January Harry Reid passengers, gaming revenue, and visitor volume soared by 39.5, 21.6, and 30.7 percent, respectively, year-over-year. Visitor volume, however, remained 9.1 percent lower than the level from January 2020. Taxable sales in December also experienced a robust gain of 8.2 percent year-over-year. January residential permits, nevertheless, continued to fall by 46.0 percent from last year.
Washoe County recorded unfavorable economic signals. The Reno-Sparks seasonally adjusted employment added 800 jobs in January. The unemployment rate, however, rose to 3.6 percent in December, higher than last year’s 3.2 percent. December taxable sales only climbed by 1.2 percent from last year despite high inflation. January visitor volume, gaming revenue, and residential permits also fell by 1.4, 12.9, and 34.7 percent, respectively, year-over-year.
UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research
The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the University of Nevada, Las Vegas or the Nevada System of Higher Education.
