The advance estimate of U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) for 2023Q1 increased by an annualized 1.1 percent, slowing from 2.6 percent in 2022Q4 amid rising interest rates. The weaker real GDP increase mainly reflected reduced business inventories, which were offset by robust consumer spending. Consumer spending lost momentum for the last few months, which may signal a further deceleration in GDP growth.
Seasonally adjusted U.S. nonfarm employment experienced a larger-than-expected gain of 253,000 jobs in April despite recent signs of a loosening labor market. The unemployment rate fell to 3.4 percent, its lowest since 1969. Job gains in the previous two months, however, were revised down by a combined 149,000. Job openings per unemployed person also edged down to 1.6 in March from 1.7 in February as job openings continued to decline. Retail sales in March increased by 2.3 percent year-over-year, the lowest since May 2020. During the May meeting, the Fed raised the federal funds rate by 0.25 percent to a range of between 5.00 and 5.25 percent but hinted at a potential pause of interest hikes.
Nevada posted generally positive economic signals. Seasonally adjusted statewide employment gained 2,600 jobs in March. The unemployment rate, however, remained at 5.5 percent for the seventh consecutive month. Total air passengers continued strong gains of 14.4 percent year-over-year. March gross gaming revenue, nevertheless, decreased by 3.2 percent year-over-year, which signals the normalization of gaming revenue as well as reduced budgets amid inflation. Taxable sales in February rose by 8.2 percent from last year. Nevada posted the highest unemployment rate of the states and DC.
Clark County also displayed somewhat favorable economic signals. The Las Vegas-Paradise seasonally adjusted employment in March added 4,100 jobs. The unemployment rate did not budge at 5.9 percent from last month, the highest among MSAs with over 1 million people. Taxable sales in February increased by 10.0 percent year-over-year. March Harry Reid passengers and visitor volume were also up strongly by 15.6 and 9.1 percent respectively, year-over-year. Gross gaming revenue in March declined by 2.5 percent from last year. March residential permits continued to fall by 12.3 percent from last year.
Washoe County showed unfavorable economic signals. The Reno-Sparks seasonally adjusted employment lost 300 jobs in March, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.0 percent in February, higher than last year’s 3.0 percent. February taxable sales diminished by 0.8 percent from last year. March gross gaming revenue and residential permits also plunged year-over-year, by 6.1 and 44.2 percent, respectively.
UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research
The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the University of Nevada, Las Vegas or the Nevada System of Higher Education
