The advance estimate of U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) for 2022Q4 expanded robustly by an annualized 2.9 percent, which caused 2022 real GDP to increase by 2.1 percent. The real GDP increase largely reflected restocked inventories and increased consumer spending, which the fall in business investment partly offset. Although consumer spending in 2022Q4 experienced a solid 2.1 percent quarter-over-quarter gain, the most recent two months of retail sales declines signal a potential economic slowdown. Seasonally adjusted U.S. nonfarm employment experienced an unanticipated gain of 517,000 jobs, mainly driven by leisure and hospitality (+128,000 jobs). The unemployment rate fell to 3.4 percent, the lowest in 54 years. Average hourly earnings continued to gain 0.3 percent month-over-month in January and 1.9 job openings still existed per unemployed person in December. The strong labor market indicates that the Fed will continue to move forward with rate hikes to further bring down inflation. CPI inflation in December continued to decelerate to 6.4 percent year-over-year.
Nevada posted mixed economic signals. Seasonally adjusted statewide employment lost 1,300 jobs in December. The unemployment rate also rose by 0.3 percent to 5.2 percent. December gaming revenue experienced a strong year-over-year gain of 14.3 percent to $1.3 billion. Taxable sales in November climbed by 7.4 percent from last year.
Clark County also displayed mixed economic signals. Seasonally adjusted employment in December lost 1,600 jobs, the first monthly decline since November 2021. December total Harry Reid passengers increased by 12.9 percent year-over-year, a record-high total of 52.6 million passengers in 2022. Despite strong air passenger performance, visitor volume in 2022 remained 10.3 percent lower than in 2019. December gaming revenue also rose strongly by 15.9 percent year-over-year, capping a record-breaking annual revenue of $12.8 billion in 2022. Taxable sales increased by 8.7 percent year-over-year in November. December residential permits continued to fall by 63.1 percent from last year.
Washoe County recorded unfavorable economic signals. The Reno-Sparks seasonally adjusted employment added 500 jobs. The unemployment rate, however, rose to 3.6 percent in December, higher than last year’s 3.2 percent. Taxable sales plummeted by 7.4 percent month-over-month despite Black Friday and Cyber Monday. December residential permits also decreased by 27.4 percent from last year. Visitor volume in December fell by 2.3 percent year-over-year, while gaming revenue increased by 9.1 percent over the same period.
UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research
The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the University of Nevada, Las Vegas or the Nevada System of Higher Education.
