The United States is experiencing modest growth with mixed signals from several key macroeconomic indicators. The third estimate for real gross domestic product (GDP) for 2026Q4 posted a weaker-than-expected annual growth rate of 0.5 percent, down from its prior estimate of 0.7 percent. Seasonally adjusted U.S. nonfarm employment increased by 178,000 jobs in March, driven by gains in health care, construction, transportation and warehousing, and also partly reflecting the return of 35,000 healthcare workers following the end of a strike. The unemployment rate remained relatively unchanged, edging down by 0.1 percent to 4.3 percent from the previous month. Retail sales saw a strong year-over-year increase of 3.7 percent. January housing starts grew 9.5 percent from last year. The March Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI increased by 3.3 and 2.6 percent, respectively, from last year, experiencing a sharp rise from the prior month due to higher crude oil prices. Further inflation pressures will continue to strengthen as long as the U.S.-Israel war with Iran continues and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to shipping traffic.
Nevada exhibited somewhat favorable economic signals. Seasonally adjusted statewide nonfarm employment added 2,000 jobs in January. The unemployment rate increased slightly to 5.3 percent, up from 5.2 percent in the previous month. January taxable sales rose by 8.8 percent year-over-year. February gaming revenue grew 1.5 percent year-over-year. Air passengers, however, decreased by 3.0 percent from a year ago.
Clark County also experienced somewhat favorable economic signals. Seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment added 1,500 jobs in January. The unemployment rate fell to 5.5 percent in December. Taxable sales rose 5.3 percent year-over-year. Tourism indicators rebounded after last month’s weak performance. February gaming revenue increased by 0.8 percent year-over-year, while visitor volume remained flat over the same period. February air passengers, however, declined by 3.3 percent from a year earlier. January residential permits dropped 18.3 percent year-over-year. Visitor volume, however, decreased by 8.8 percent from last month. Washoe County showed more positive economic signals. Seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment lost 200 jobs in January. Unemployment fell to 4.4 percent, down 0.1 percent from last month. Taxable sales rose strongly by 14.1 percent year-over-year. Tourism indicators were positive across the board. Gaming revenue, air travel, and visitor volume all jumped by 7.2 percent, 2.2 percent, and 10.1 percent, respectively, from a year earlier. Residential permits, however, dropped 74.1 percent year-over-year.
UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research
The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the University of Nevada, Las Vegas or the Nevada System of Higher Education.
