The third estimate of U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2022 remained down by 0.6 percent at an annual rate, unchanged from the second estimate. Overall, the decrease in real GDP in the second quarter largely reflected reduced private inventory investment and residential fixed investment, which was partly offset by increased consumer spending on services. U.S. nonfarm employment experienced a steady gain, but at a slower pace, adding 263,000 jobs in September after adding 315,000 and 537,000 jobs, respectively, in August and July. Despite this sign of a cooling labor market, the unemployment rate dropped to a 50-year low of 3.5 percent. The Fed will likely continue to increase interest rates by 50 basis points or more when they meet in November in order to control inflation, given a tight labor market. Retail sales performed better than expected in August, up by 0.3 and 9.1 percent, respectively, month-over-month and year-over-year, outpacing price increases. The CPI increased 8.2 percent year-over-year in August.
Nevada posted mixed economic signals. Seasonally adjusted statewide employment decreased by 2,600 jobs in August. The unemployment rate, however, remained unchanged at 4.4 percent. August gaming revenue plummeted 8.2 percent from last month but increased by 3.7 percent from last year, which might signal the normalization of gaming revenue. Taxable sales in July rose 6.5 percent year-over-year, but the gallons of gasoline sales dropped by 7.4 percent over the same period.
Clark County’s economic signals convey more caution. August saw seasonally adjusted employment add 900 jobs. The unemployment rate in August edged up to 5.4 percent. August total Harry Reid passengers declined by 4.6 percent month-over-month after hitting record-high levels for two consecutive months. Visitor volume fell by 9.2 percent month-over-month. Visitor volume still remains 12.6 percent lower than its pre-pandemic level in August 2019. Gaming revenue increased 3.1 percent year-over-year in August. Taxable sales climbed 8.2 percent year-over-year in July. August residential permits continued to plummet by 58.5 percent year-over-year amid higher interest rates.
Washoe County continues to display mixed economic signals. The Reno-Sparks seasonally adjusted employment gained 100 jobs in August, while the unemployment rate increased to 3.1 percent. Taxable sales only rose by 1.7 percent year-over-year in July despite higher inflation. Gaming revenue and air passengers in August rose by 2.3 and 10.9 percent, respectively, from last year, while visitor volume declined 2.3 percent over the same period.
UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research
The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the University of Nevada, Las Vegas or the Nevada System of Higher Education.
